China’s debt has grown sharply since 2009. In the past, debt-funded investment was the basis of China’s rapid growth. More recently, however, falling investment returns have led to slowing growth and a rising debt burden. Much of this debt, particularly in industries burdened by overcapacity, will not be repaid. Bad debt implies losses, and a key question facing the government is how these losses are assigned: who will pay for China’s bad debt? In the past, different countries have answered this question in different ways and their decisions have had long-term effects on their economies.
Prof Paul Armstrong-Taylor will discuss the options facing the government, the consequences of different choices, and suggest a possible outcome.
Paul Armstrong-Taylor is currently Resident Professor of International Economics at John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Nanjing University, China, where he teaches classes on finance, strategy and the Chinese economy. Previously, he was Visiting Professor of Economics and Finance at the Antai School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University. His professional experience includes positions as a consultant at Monitor Group and London Economics, and as an fixed income analyst at Morgan Stanley.
Paul received his B.A. and M.Phil. in Economics from Cambridge University, and his Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University. His research interests include the Chinese economy, game theory, business strategy and finance. He has published numerous articles on China and the economy for academic and non-academic media, and has spoken at a number of events, including The China Economics Forum and the Annual US-China Business Council Conference in Shanghai.
Paul is the author of “Debt and Distortion: Risks and Reforms in the Chinese Financial System”.
